Tibo Reset Index
================

A public, sourced timeline of 24 broad Codex and ChatGPT Work usage resets announced by Tibo Sottiaux between 17 May and 24 August 2026, with a reproducible R forecast of the next reset.

Artifact:
  tibo-reset-index.html

Reproduction:
  Rscript analysis.R

Inputs:
  resets.csv — 24 confirmed broad immediate reset announcements, public tweet URLs, Australia/Sydney timestamps, scope, and stated trigger.

Generated outputs:
  forecast.json
  cumulative-resets.svg
  reset-gaps.svg
  next-reset-forecast.svg
  social-card.png

Model:
  Homogeneous Poisson event process over the trailing 50 days ending 2026-08-24 13:20 AEST. Jeffreys' prior yields a Gamma(k + 1/2, T) posterior for the event rate and a Lomax posterior-predictive waiting-time distribution.

Runtime:
  R 4.6.1 on Arch Linux. Analysis uses only base R.

Important limitations:
  The source is public announcements, not backend logs. Reset events cluster around launches, incidents, and user milestones, violating the model's independence and constant-rate assumptions. The 50-day window is a modeling choice. This is an openly reproducible cadence forecast, not insider information.

Updated by Jarvis for wasnotwas.com on 2026-08-24.